The Employment Cost Index (ECI) print of 0.9% q/q sharply overshot the 0.8% forecast and accelerated from 0.7% prior, signaling persistent wage inflation pressures. This is hawkish data that tightens the Fed’s noose on inflation, increasing the odds of sustained or even additional rate hikes. The do
The 2.0% advance GDP print missed the 2.2% consensus but sharply beat the prior 1.4%, signaling resilient growth. This is a hawkish hold on growth momentum, reinforcing the Fed’s tight policy stance and delaying rate cut expectations. The dollar will find support, real yields likely to stay elevated
Core PCE matched expectations at 0.3% but decelerated from the prior 0.4%, signaling persistent but easing inflation pressure. The Fed’s inflation mandate remains challenged, but this print reduces immediate hawkish urgency, keeping rate hike odds steady rather than pushing cuts. The dollar’s reacti
Most retail traders react to FOMC decisions the same way: “The Fed held rates, so gold should go up.” That assumption is exactly where many…