The Fed held rates steady at 3.75%, exactly as expected, but the tone was hawkish, not neutral. The Fed signaled ongoing vigilance against inflation, pushing back on market hopes for imminent cuts. This keeps the dollar bid and real yields elevated, creating a headwind for Gold. Traders who see the
The FOMC press conference is set for 04-29-2026 at 6:30pm ET with no accompanying rate decision or economic data release. Without fresh data or a policy shift, the tone will hinge entirely on Fed Chair commentary. Expect a neutral hold stance unless the Chair signals a hawkish pivot or dovish pivot.
The FOMC statement is the key event tonight, but expectations are for a steady hold at the current rate. The market is pricing a hawkish pause, not a dovish pivot. The Fed remains caught between sticky inflation and slowing growth, signaling no imminent cuts but also no aggressive hikes. This keeps
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) print of 0.9% q/q sharply overshot the 0.8% forecast and accelerated from 0.7% prior, signaling persistent wage inflation pressures. This is hawkish data that tightens the Fed’s noose on inflation, increasing the odds of sustained or even additional rate hikes. The do
The 2.0% advance GDP print missed the 2.2% consensus but sharply beat the prior 1.4%, signaling resilient growth. This is a hawkish hold on growth momentum, reinforcing the Fed’s tight policy stance and delaying rate cut expectations. The dollar will find support, real yields likely to stay elevated
Core PCE matched expectations at 0.3% but decelerated from the prior 0.4%, signaling persistent but easing inflation pressure. The Fed’s inflation mandate remains challenged, but this print reduces immediate hawkish urgency, keeping rate hike odds steady rather than pushing cuts. The dollar’s reacti
Most retail traders react to FOMC decisions the same way: “The Fed held rates, so gold should go up.” That assumption is exactly where many…