CPI m/m came in exactly on forecast at 0.1%, so this is not an inflation shock. The market gets no new reason to reprice the Fed path aggressively, and that means no clean impulse for the dollar or real yields. The previous -0.4% print creates a better-looking month-over-month sequence, but the key
This CPI print is a clean in-line release, not a shock. Headline inflation held at 3.4% and simply matched consensus, while the prior 3.5% was trimmed lower — that keeps the disinflation trend alive, but not fast enough to force an immediate dovish repricing. The Fed remains trapped between sticky i
Core CPI printed exactly in line at 0.2% after a 0.0% prior reading. That is not a surprise, so this is a low-conviction inflation print that keeps the Fed path broadly unchanged rather than forcing a repricing. The tone is neutral-to-slightly sticky on inflation, which limits dovish rate-cut enthus
Core CPI printed exactly in line at 2.5% versus 2.5% expected, with a modest step down from 2.6% previously. That is not a shock; it is a confirmation print. The Fed gets no fresh excuse to turn hawkish, but it also gets no clean dovish signal to accelerate cuts, so the rate path stays data-dependen
The ISM Manufacturing PMI printed 55.6 versus 54.0 expected and 53.3 prior. That is not a soft beat; it is an expansionary upside surprise that tells the market the US growth backdrop is firmer than consensus assumed. The Fed implication is less urgency for cuts, which supports the dollar and pressu
ADP came in at 44K versus 70K expected and 98K previously. That is a clear labor-market slowdown, not a collapse, but it is enough to pull the market toward a more dovish Fed path if this softness persists into NFP. The immediate macro read is lower U.S. rate pressure, softer DXY, and lower real-yie
[ISM Services printed 54.1 versus 54.5 expected, with the prior at 54.0. That is a soft miss, but not a growth shock; the sector is still expanding and the deviation is small. The tone is mildly dovish for the dollar because it nudges the market toward slightly easier Fed pricing and a touch lower r
This is a soft wage print, not a wage scare. Average hourly earnings came in at 0.1% MoM versus 0.3% expected and 0.3% previously, which tells the market wage pressure is cooling faster than consensus assumed. That lowers the odds of the Fed staying restrictive for longer, trims DXY support, and nud
[Average Hourly Earnings slowed to 3.2% YoY versus 3.5% expected and 3.5% prior. That is a clean dovish labor signal, not noise: wage pressure is easing, and that reduces the need for the Fed to stay restrictive for longer. The immediate implication is lower U.S. rate pressure, softer DXY, and a dow
Nonfarm Payrolls printed a collapse at -23K versus +80K expected, after +57K previously. That is not a soft miss; it is a growth shock and it immediately re-prices the Fed toward a more dovish path because labor is the one mandate that just broke. DXY should weaken and real yields should fall as mar